Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah at a summit in Mecca on August 14, 2012. (AFP PHOTO/FAYEZ NURELDINE)
In the wake of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s landslide victory in Egypt’s presidential elections last week, Arab allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are throwing their weight behind the new leader — and urging other governments to join their efforts. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah called for an international aid drive for Egypt’s battered economy, urging friends of the country to pledge financial support to its new government.
Abdullah’s statement of congratulations to Sisi upon the announcement of his victory on Tuesday doubled down on the support the oil-rich kingdom has offered Egypt since the military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood government last July. Since then, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have pledged billions of dollars in aid in order to keep Egypt’s economy afloat. Even with these considerable infusions of cash, the economic climate in the country remains bleak after years of instability following the country’s 2011 uprising. Egypt’s economy is now growing at its slowest pace in two decades with crucial sectors like tourism feeling the brunt of the political unrest which has also kept away investors. With a looming energy crisis and major doubts about the feasibility of Sisi’s so-called “Map of the Future” the prospect of progress on this front looks far from promising.
Amid Abdullah’s entreaties to other governments is talk that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are preparing a brand new financial aid package of $20 billion to boost the incoming Sisi government. As grim as the economic outlook may be in Egypt, it is not surprising that the Gulf (with the notable exception of Qatar) has continued to pour their money on the army chief. Thus far, these cash infusions have been less of an investment in Egypt’s future economic success than a guarantee of a political order that prioritizes the Saudis’ regional policies— namely, curbing the influence of Islamists and Iran. Egypt’s military regime has enthusiastically taken up those causes, walking back Morsi’s tentative steps towards Iran and imprisoning nearly the entire leadership of the Brotherhood.
However, now the continued success of Sisi’s political career (and the military regime) depends on some measure of financial recovery. As much wealth as the Saudis may have to throw at this issue, singlehandedly propping up the Egyptian economy — and indefinitely, at that — is not in the cards. Hence the move to crowdsource the effort. Not only does this reduce the financial burden on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi alone, positioning the initiative as a regional imperative raises the political stakes for countries that may be hesitant or unwilling to throw their lot behind Sisi— i.e. Qatar. Abdullah’s not-so-subtle threat that any country that did not contribute to Egypt’s future despite having the ability to do so would “have no future place among us” is a pretty clear warning to Doha.
While the Saudis have walked back their unusually public squabble with their fellow GCC member, they are clearly still smarting from the kingdom’s backing of the Brotherhood. Leveraging the opportunity to raise support for Egypt as a means of pressuring Doha — or indirectly marginalizing its position in the country even further — is a savvy move. Even more savvy is Riyadh’s seeming determination to learn from the Qataris’ failed gamble in Egypt. Being seen as the sole international backer of the Brotherhood effectively shut Qatar out of Egypt following the coup. While the Saudis can be reasonably confident of Sisi’s position for the time being, diffusing responsibility for the current Egyptian regime’s international support among regional players lessens Riyadh’s political role here somewhat. So, while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi prepare for even bigger bets on the Sisi government, they are also taking the steps to shield themselves politically by turning Egypt into a regional initiative rather than their own personal project.
