Serbian hooligans burn the Croatian national flag in Belgrade on September 6, 2013. AFP PHOTO / STR
On Monday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague opened proceedings on a case fifteen years in the making. In 1999, Croatia sued the then-Yugoslavia for genocide and “ethnic cleansing” during the former’s war of independence between 1991 and 1995. The suit has since been transferred to Serbia — the legal successor to the former Yugoslavia. In 2010, Belgrade launched its own countersuit alleging that Croatia committed genocide by forcibly expulsing some 230,000 Serbs in its 1995 Operation Storm.
VISUAL CONTEXT: Serbia’s flailing economy
The month-long proceeding looks to exacerbate lingering tensions between the two neighbors, which have maintained cordial if cautious relations since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia. This despite a dual press conference held Monday by Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic and Croatian Foreign Minister Vesna Pusic in Belgrade. Vucic noted that both nations would aim to prevent their complicated history from “poisoning bilateral relations.”
Yet, Zaghreb is aiming for the throat, armed with a manifold list of demands: payment of war reparations, which it estimates at $32 billion, trials for all Serbian war criminals, and the return of all cultural assets seized during the conflict. Oh, and an official apology. It has rejected Serbia’s offer to drop its lawsuit if Croatian leaders do the same.
For its part, Belgrade has adopted if not a nonchalant attitude to the case, then an un-intimidated one, buoyed perhaps by its recent successes on the diplomatic stage. After years of battling for de facto control over Serbian enclaves in northern Kosovo — with whom it has even more fraught relations — Belgrade agreed to an E.U.-mediated deal with its archrival, which resulted in the debut of European integration talks. (Croatia joined the bloc to muted fanfare in July 2013.) The international community was quick to laud Serbia’s diplomacy, despite residual hostility among Kosovar Serbs towards Pristina — not to mention their former backers in Belgrade — and delays in critical reforms necessary for accession.
In an added blow to Zaghreb, Serbian coverage of the genocide case is expected to be superseded by domestic politics, with all eyes on parliamentary elections this month set to be dominated by Vucic’s political coalition, as well as on a critical two-week long visit by the IMF to evaluate the country’s precarious finances.
Thunderous opening aside — Croatian lawyers accused Serbia of “genocide denial” on Monday — the ICJ trial may fizzle out without offering resolution to either side. Legal experts warn that given the precedent of a similar genocide suit filed against Serbia by Bosnia-Herzegovina in 2007, and subsequently dismissed by the ICJ, a dismissal of both Serbia and Croatia’s lawsuits is likely by the end of 2014 or early 2015. Such a ruling would be binding and put the genocide question to rest – at least in the eyes of the international justice system. What’s more, it would effectively freeze Croatia’s reparation claims, granting cash-strapped Serbia yet another victory.
