French soldiers stand guard at a checkpoint near Bangui Airport on October 10, 2013. AFP PHOTO / ISSOUF SANOGO
One week after the international community pressured interim president — and former coup leader — Michel Djotodia to resign, the Central African Republic (C.A.R.) is gearing up to select a transitional president on Monday, via a national transition council, who will guide the country out of its current crisis — in theory.
The stakes are daunting. Since Séléka fighters overthrew the government last year, the country has been split along sectarian lines, with Christian vigilante militias forming to combat the predominantly Muslim rebels. (Many of these militias have been targeting C.A.R.’s Muslims indiscriminately.) The United Nations warns of genocide, noting that elements found in Bosnia and Rwanda’s wars are present. The threat of regional spillover is palpable, with C.A.R. soldiers and rebels fleeing to the nearby Democratic Republic of Congo, itself wracked by internal conflicts. Despite the presence of French troops, who entered the C.A.R. a little over a month ago in hopes of quickly restoring stability, the conflict continues to degenerate: 1 million people have been displaced and over half the country’s population (approximately 2.6 million) is in need of humanitarian aid.
Regardless, France is pushing for elections by the end of this year. The formula is tried and true — kind of. In January 2013, France sent soldiers to Mali to quell an incursion of Islamist rebels with links to Al Qaeda. Seven months later, the onslaught largely contained, Paris fast-tracked democratic elections in large part to justify its withdrawal and avoid a protracted military presence. Though the terrorist threat remains, and nearly half a million Malians are internally displaced, President François Hollande has made much of his ‘victory’ there, and France is planning to decrease its presence to 1,000 soldiers by the end of the year.
In the C.A.R., too, Hollande is taking the optimistic view, noting “a kind of calming down” of the situation. True, Monday’s vote – and the weekend campaigning that will precede it – is expected to unfold smoothly. Strict regulations for the ballot for C.A.R.’s transitional president, as well as eventual national elections, bar from running political party leaders, active soldiers, former members of Djotodia’s administration, and anyone who belonged to a militia or armed rebellion over the past twenty years.
But even if the C.A.R.’s transitional council selects a qualified interim president — the West is reportedly pushing for a technocrat — Paris’ hopes for a December vote remain ambitious. Already, France is admitting it drastically underestimated the sectarian divide in the country and that its troops are facing a “nearly impossible” situation. At home, the campaign is unpopular and the Elysee’s attention is visibly focused elsewhere.
In Mali, France gambled on a quick campaign that paid off in terms of military success and domestic and international popularity. One year later, its second African theater is shaping up to be far less cut-and-dry. France — to its chagrin — may be in the C.A.R. in for the long haul.
