POWER PLAYER: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

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This time last year it may have been difficult to imagine that the major question dominating Egyptian politics would be whether army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi would be running for president. Prior to the July coup that resulted in the ousting of President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood from power, Sisi was largely a behind-the-scenes figure, quietly serving the Morsi government in his capacity as defense minister. Sisi’s seamlessly executed obliteration of the Brotherhood leadership is almost as remarkable as the rapid transformation of the army chief’s standing to the exalted position he currently occupies among broad swathes of the Egyptian public.

When Morsi first appointed Sisi to replace former military chief Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi in 2012, many of the president’s critics worried it was yet another of the Brotherhood’s attempts to monopolize power by stacking political institutions with the Islamist group’s supporters. Sisi came with a large question mark over his head; he could hardly be included among the military’s old-guard and, though he was known to be religious, his political leanings were a mystery. This ambiguity helped to fuel concerns that he was yet another Brotherhood lackey on his way to infiltrating one of Egypt’s most important institutions. And the widely held perception persisted almost until the moment Sisi actually deposed the Brotherhood government.

Though the military’s supremacy in Egyptian politics was no big secret, Sisi’s role in engineering the coup (which his supporters, of course, call a “revolution”) caught most Egyptians by surprise and helped to contribute to his mantling as the savior of Egypt’s 2011 uprising. While it is jarring to observe how a leader from the military establishment (and one who defended so-called “virginity tests” on female protesters, to boot) is now being held up as the revolution’s best hope, it should be viewed as a measure of his aptitude at gauging and manipulating public sentiment for his own ends. And it should come as no great surprise why his calculating, decisive nature would be greeted with such welcome by most Egyptians following the bumbling ineptitude of the Morsi presidency.

Sisi’s real power, however, derives from the near-absolute division he maintains between his private personality and his public role. As much as his political canniness, it has helped to unsettle his opponents and give himself the space to adapt to developments as they take place. And now, given his broad popularity in Egypt, he rarely has to inject himself into political discussions, relying instead on his vocal supporters to take up his case. Though he is effectively leading the country, he has also taken refuge in his position as defense chief, keeping up the pretense that Interim President (and political nonentity) Adly Mansour is running the show and, yet again, strategically exploiting the ambiguity that surrounds him.

The question now is whether he is willing to trade his valuable public distance from the official seat of government in order to maintain power. The curtain was pulled back somewhat earlier in December when a leaked recording of Sisi’s prophetic political visions surfaced in the media, revealing his presidential aspirations. Whether he resists his desire for the presidency will be a significant measure of his canniness. After all, the Egyptian presidency has not been kind to its previous officeholders. Playing the role of the kingmaker — and continuing to effectively steer the country from behind the scenes — may be the wiser course for Sisi. Yet as shrewd as Sisi has proven to be so far, the allure of the presidency may prove to be too great.