Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov prays. STR/AFP/GettyImages
The ‘merger’ between Syrian jihadist group al-Nusra Front and al-Qaeda’s Iraq affiliate is now in doubt — but the man whose voice put it in doubt may himself be evidence of another and equally disturbing linkage between Islamist insurgent groups. Abu Mohammad al-Golani, commander of al-Nusra, may be a Syrian Chechen — and though Syria is a long way from the southern Russian republic of Chechnya, a growing body of evidence suggests a dangerous connection between the civil wars in both. TV footage of graffiti in Syrian towns saying ‘We started in Syria, we will finish in Russia’ speaks to a serious concern for Moscow.
Since 2012, there have been reports of Chechens fighting amongst the rebels in Syria. At first, it was difficult to tell whether they were foreign jihadists or members of Syria’s 20,000-strong ethnic Chechen population. Chechnya’s Moscow-backed president, Ramzan Kadyrov, initially dismissed tales of Chechen fighters.
However, it is now clear that the presence of Chechens within the rebel movement is increasing, and that they are not just locals. Associated with Al-Nusra are the ‘Immigrant Brothers,’ a force drawn entirely from expatriate jihadists. Its commander is ‘Omar Abu al-Chechen,’ ‘Omar Abu of the Chechens.’ Last week, a Chechen rebel website reported the death in Syria of ‘Abu Aburahhman,’ an Arab jihadist who had joined the North Caucasus insurgency, perhaps as an Al-Qaeda operative. Indeed, by some estimates volunteers from the North Caucasus — including Chechnya — are the second-largest contingent of foreign fighters in Syria, only outnumbered by Libyans. Now even Kadyrov has been forced to admit that the fact of this presence, calling such Chechens ‘mercenaries’ who would be ‘hunted down’ if they tried to return to Chechnya. Given that Chechens have also been found within European jihadist terrorist groups, it is no surprise that they seem especially represented within the more radical rebel elements. And this flow of volunteers from the North Caucasus risk shifting the balance of power within the fragmented rebel movement towards the more extreme Islamist wing. This is a recipe for civil war as and when Assad falls.
Meanwhile, Kadyrov and Moscow fear that in due course these fighters will return to the North Caucasus, bringing with them new allies and resources, not least the weapons they are receiving now from backers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Not only would this potentially galvanize a Chechen rebel movement currently in decline, it would play into the hands of Doku Umarov, self-proclaimed head of the ‘Caucasus Emirate.’ At present, his authority over the jamaats — insurgent groups elsewhere in the North Caucasus — is severely limited. However, an influx of battle-hardened jihadists from Syria would increase his authority and permit him to resume his campaign to bring terrorism to the rest of Russia.
