Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou gestures during a press conference in Taipei on May 20, 2012. (SAM YEH/AFP/GettyImages)
Like many leaders from around the world, Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou is preparing to travel to the Vatican to attend newly-elected Pope Francis’s inauguration next week. His decision to do so, however, is a bit more politically fraught than most of his counterparts’.
The Vatican is the only European government that maintains ties with Taiwan and recognizes the island as separate from China, which claims sovereignty over the territory. And the last time a Taiwanese president visited the Vatican — for Pope John Paul II’s funeral in 2005 — the backlash from the Chinese government was swift; China immediately boycotted the proceedings, refusing to send a delegation of its own and further straining relations with then-Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.
Which casts Beijing’s response to Ma’s visit (so far) as surprisingly subdued: “We hope Taiwan will keep in mind the overall interests of cross-straits relations, and work with China to maintain the sound condition of (ties).” The carefully-worded statement from China’s foreign ministry indicates that while China is not preparing a repeat of their 2005 response, Taipei should nonetheless take care not to overstep. The whole exchange being, of course, shaped by the unofficial diplomatic truce that has characterized China’s relations with Taiwan since Beijing-friendly Ma was elected in 2008.
Under Ma, Taiwan’s relations with China have been characterized by a pragmatic approach to easing tensions — from shelving their largely-symbolic bid for U.N. membership to agreeing to go by the name “Chinese Taipei” in certain international organizations like the World Health Organization. While Taiwan’s government maintains its goal of achieving full independence from China, Ma’s administration has been far less vocal about those objectives than his predecessor, allowing for a semi-detente to emerge between the two governments. China’s response to Ma’s Vatican visit is without doubt geared towards maintaining that delicate status quo, not blessing (so to speak) relations between Taiwan and its sole European ally.
The minatory note is still prominent, however, and there’s a possibility that the truce is already in jeopardy: not from Taiwan’s ties with the Vatican but from China’s possible ones. The Chinese government has not had ties with the Holy See since 1951 and continues to tussle with the Church over its “[interference] in China’s internal affairs,” namely, its objections to China’s treatment of its Catholic population. However, Beijing has suggested that it would be willing to rethink its relationship with the Vatican on the condition that it sever ties with Taiwan — and there are indications that the Vatican may be willing to throw Taiwan under the bus for a shot at influencing China’s Catholic policy. And even a cleric as renowned for humility as Francis may not be able to resist the temptation of a promised revise of policies that have a reported 10 million Chinese Catholics practicing underground.
