The Algerian gas field where Islamist militants took hostages.
The hostage crisis in Algeria appears to be the first major fallout of France’s military intervention into Mali — a situation that has quickly embroiled, via the varying nationalities of the hostages, a number of other nations. Conflicting reports emerged throughout the day Thursday with the militants behind the attack, the Katibat Moulathamine or Masked Brigade, claiming that a helicopter attack by the Algerian military killed 35 hostages and 15 kidnappers. An Algerian security source later confirmed the total killed to be 30 hostages, at least 7 foreign, and 11 militants. The fact that oil prices rose on the news and that the E.U. okayed Thursday a training mission to aid the Malian military should serve as stark reminders of how quickly a regional conflict (one that, when it was cited a potential flashpoint for conflict by U.S. presidential contender Mitt Romney in 2012, was largely dismissed by media outlets) can go very, very global.
The al-Qaeda-linked Brigade openly admits that it is retaliating against Algeria for allowing France, which launched a surprise operation in Mali this past Friday, to use its airspace to target Islamist rebels in the north. Algeria, which had been lukewarm towards the French intervention plan over fears that the conflict would spill into its own border, now appears to be fully justified in its concerns. The tacit truce between the Algerian government and al-Qaeda offshoots operating below its southern border has crumbled in the wake of Algeria’s reluctant support for the French intervention plan (helped along by a historic visit to the country by French president Francois Hollande in December). It now finds its thriving energy sector in the middle of the conflict raging in Mali. An attack on an energy facility in the country has far-reaching economic implications — a quarter of Europe’s natural gas imports, in addition to millions of barrels of crude oil annually, come from Algeria. An attack like this is almost unprecedented in Algeria and has highlighted the seriousness of the conflict brewing to their south as Islamist militant groups, such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib, leverage their growing strength in North Africa to exert direct pressure on regional governments.
The escalating conflict also raises pressure on other international players to respond. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has already called the incident a “terrorist attack” and has said that the U.S. would take “all necessary and proper steps” in order to respond to the hostage situation. What those steps will be is still unclear but the shift in rhetoric may indicate a more robust U.S. involvement in the conflict, though it remains to be seen whether it will extend to the larger French operation in Mali. Reports from the White House on Thursday indicate that the U.S. is still considering France’s requests for logistical support.
The seriousness of the hostage situation indicates the potential of the conflict in Mali to rapidly escalate and engulf the larger region. It also highlights how the stakes have risen both for France (where some domestic criticism is already taking on echoes of the pushback against the Iraq war ) and, at more of a remove, the U.S., which is trying to wind down its last major front in the fight against such extremism while still projecting an image of strength in that arena. Regardless of the aftermath of the Algerian hostage crisis, it’s become clear that any foreign intervention into Mali will entail messy consequences — an outcome it is hard to believe was ever seriously in doubt.
