On Friday, French President François Hollande issued a rather ominous promise to help Mali as it struggles to repel al Qaeda-linked rebel alliance groups that have taken over the north of the country and aim to expand its sphere of influence.
At the time, Hollande was vague on what form that help would take, but on the heels of the European Union speeding up training for Malian troops, French airstrikes hit a rebel-held town, driving militant forces back. It’s clear that France’s intervention has tipped the military balance of power, and while French officials have assured the campaign will last “only a matter of weeks,” it may not be that simple.
An Associated Press report outlines the difficulties France may have in extricating itself from its former colony’s military difficulties. Northern Mali is now the biggest territory held by al-Qaeda and its allies globally, and many fear (not unjustly, considering that unsuccessful or semi-successful anti-al-Qaeda interventions have been a defining feature of worldwide foreign policy for the past decade) driving the extremists out will take more time and manpower than anyone has planned.
There’s also the swiftness with which France — and, more to the point, Hollande — made the decision to use intervene militarily. Hollande categorically stated that there would be no French troops in Mali, and seemed to adopt a stance opposed to similar types of intevention - withdrawing troops early from Afghanistan and refusing to send military aid to the Central African Republic, which asked for assistance in beating back an internal rebellion.
With the snub of C.A.R. President François Bozize, Hollande’s government appeared to be signalling the end of the policy known as “francafrique,” and moving to have less of a hand in the affairs of Francophone Africa. Hollande expressed a desire to focus on the issues plaguing the homefront, most notably the country’s continuing economic troubles. He’s been largely ineffective, suffering a nosedive in popularity that was not helped by the total rejection of his ambitious tax plan. He has earned a reputation for being indecisive, reactive rather than proactive, especially where economic matters are concerned.
In going back on his word and going all in with Mali, Hollande is taking decisive action and indicating, perhaps, that “francafrique” is alive and well. By emphasizing the danger in allowing militant groups to expand their influence and threaten other African nations and Europe, and by invoking the buzzwords “fighting terrorism,” he has the backing of the European Union and the U.S., among others. Britain is sending a RAF plane to support France’s airstrikes and has drones and spy planes on standby, and Hollande is acting with the blessing of the U.N.
But it remains to be seen what the mood will be in Paris if the offensive goes on for more than those “few weeks.” After all, the militants have been ensconced in Mali for more than a year, and militants had promised a struggle to eclipse that in Afghanistan. There’s no reason to believe that they would cede the ground they have gained any easier than Al Qaeda in other parts of the world have done under international pressure. Hollande has already admitted that the insurgents are “better armed and equipped” than initially believed.
Then there are the potential casualties. On the first day of the French action in Mali, a French helicopter was downed and its pilot died. France has eight hostages held by extremist groups in the region, who are more now vulnerable than ever. The terrorist threat level on French soil has been stepped up to its maximum. And the moment Hollande is snapped greeting coffins draped in the French flag may result in the rug being pulled out from him in terms of the support of the French people.
The difficulties faced by the U.S. and other nations in fighting terrorist groups and insurgents in Afghanistan has been well documented, and Mali may just be the second act of an unending struggle: one that the French — already disappointed in many of the decisions their president has made to this point — may tire of very quickly.