Democratic Republic of Congo government soldiers ride on the back of a truck. AFP PHOTO/Tony KARUMBA
While the Democratic Republic of Congo is certainly no stranger to violence and upheaval, the rapidly deteriorating situation in the eastern part of the country during the past months has set the stage for an even more tempestuous year ahead.
The resource-rich nation has long been the battlefield on which various rebel groups have fought against — and sometimes alongside — the dysfunctional Congolese national army (and each other). Though the situation had ostensibly stabilized in recent years, the swift and effective takeover of the strategically vital Northern Kivu province over the last few months by the M23 rebel group has raised alarm about a dramatic escalation in violence and instability. Goma, one of eastern DRC’s most important cities, was seized by M23 fighters in mid-November as hapless Congolese army troops either fled or defected. Riots erupted across the country; many Congolese demanded the ouster of President Joseph Kabila over his powerlessness in the face of the rebel encroachment.
Though intense international pressure managed to persuade the M23 rebels to retreat from Goma, the aftermath of the takeover has already produced a series of circumstances that signal an even more ominous turn of events ahead. First, the trail of carnage left in the wake of the takeover — including the alleged assassinations of magistrates and other local officials — has contributed to a security vacuum and a concomitant lawlessness. The noted uptick in robberies, killings, and rapes (that last in a country already seeing tens of thousands of reported rapes a year) is a foreboding sign indeed.
Perhaps more worryingly, there are indications that the Congolese army has renewed its alliance with the notorious Hutu militia known as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a group employing some of the perpetrators of the ‘94 Rwandan genocide. The decision to utilize FDLR forces, which have already been accused by numerous international bodies of committing war crimes, including mass rape and the recruitment of child soldiers, is a dismaying prospect for the Congolese unlucky enough to live in their tactical path. It is also sure to exacerbate tensions between DRC and neighboring, Tutsi-led Rwanda.
Finally, reports of rebel infiltration of the nation’s security forces raise questions about the solidifying influence of the M23 movement as well as their alleged backers, the Rwandan government. Rwanda is widely believed to be funding — and even commanding — the M23. With its history of incursion into Congo, along with reports of its troops entering Goma alongside the rebels, Rwanda appears perilously close to reigniting a longstanding local conflict.
On the international stage, the effects of the crisis in the DRC are already being felt. A United Nations panel released a report in October accusing top Rwandan officials of supporting the M23 movement. While Rwanda has furiously denied the allegations, even its most committed allies, including the United States, have begun to cut international aid in response. The United Kingdom, Rwanda’s largest donor, announced they were withholding $34 million in planned aid earlier this month. The U.S.’s relationship to the Rwandan government is also coming under increased scrutiny and its so-far unwavering support for the government of Paul Kagame is beginning to feel the strain.
While Rwanda is hardly the only regional player with interests in the DRC, its government response to international condemnation will play a crucial role in how the crisis plays out — especially as it takes a seat at the U.N. Security Council early next year. Rwanda last mounted an invasion of the DRC in 1998. The war — known as “Africa’s World War” – that grew out of that invasion is one of the twentieth century’s bloodiest. Throughout its history, the DRC’s toxic mix of resource-rich land and entrenched ethnic tension has been a recipe for strife for its people. International action in the coming year may not do much to improve the current situation. However, as history has shown, the price of inaction may be far too high.
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