E.U. Foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on December 4, 2024 in Basel. SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP/Getty Images
Federica Mogherini, the E.U.’s newly appointed foreign affairs chief, is heading to Turkey on December 8-9 in an attempt to court a powerful, if prickly, ally. Mogherini will be accompanied by E.U. Humanitarian Affairs Commissioner Christos Sylianides and Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn.
The trip comes days after a similar charm offensive led by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met with his Turkish counterpart, President Recep Erdogan, this week to discuss strategic ties. Topping the agenda was Putin’s pledge to boost bilateral trade and diplomatic relations, despite differing stances on Syria and Ukraine. Putin’s visit to Turkey was also the occasion for an important, if not altogether surprising, announcement regarding the cancellation of the major South Stream gas pipeline to Europe. (Though the European Commission has indicated that the project may well go ahead.)
Now Mogherini faces one of her first major challenges since taking office this November amid a contested nomination process. (The foreign affairs chief was heavily criticized for her relative inexperience and perceived pro-Moscow bias.) Her objective: cement ties with Turkey while treading lightly around its spotty human rights record. The E.U.’s stance towards Ankara has always been fraught. Turkey is of critical strategic importance when it comes to regional stability in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Iraq, as well as an appealing economic partner. (Russia is courting Ankara for the same reasons.) However, reluctance to allow this long-time E.U. aspirant stems from a number of persistent issues, namely internal tensions with the nation’s large Kurdish population and widespread human rights violations. (Discomfort with allowing a predominantly Muslim state is another factor.)
Though accession negotiations resumed last year after a long freeze, momentum has since waned in the E.U. in large part thanks to Erdogan’s ham-fisted handling of nationwide protests last year. Yet, Europe still needs Turkey – at the least to counter Russia’s expansionary ambitions. But while Mogherini is generally considered to be a friend of Turkey, her choice of companions indicates that even if Brussels seeks to cultivate a stronger relationship, it wields both a carrot and a stick. E.U. Enlargement Commissioner Hahn stated, “Further reforms are needed to provide solid ground for progress. To achieve this, we need to have an even closer and deeper relationship with Turkey.”
The strategy is tricky, especially with Erdogan cooling on a rapprochement with the E.U. Worse, as evidenced by the E.U.’s Ukraine fiasco – wherein an attempt to wrangle reforms in exchange for an accelerated integration process backfired — the bloated bloc no longer wields the same influence. And Erdogan – like Putin – knows it.
