Iraqis who have fled recent fighting try to enter a displacement camp on July 2, 2024 in Khazair, Iraq. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
The situation in Iraq is worsening, with Sunni militants declaring their own expansive Islamic “caliphate” this week. Now, the armed movement known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is demanding it be referred to as the “Islamic State.” The declaration comes as attempts to create a unity government composed of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions, under pressure from the international community, collapsed Tuesday amidst widespread acrimony in Iraq’s national assembly and boycotts by several MPs. Parliament has been adjourned until July 8. In the meanwhile, the fighting rages on; according to a United Nations report released Tuesday, June was the deadliest month in Iraq since 2008, with some 2,400 people killed. Below we dig into the history and tactics of the radical group that has many warning of the first credible challenger to Al Qaeda.
What’s the backstory?
ISIS – also known as ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) – is an Al Qaeda offshoot formed in 2004 during the Iraq war to battle U.S. coalition troops. Its leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed two years later by a U.S. airstrike, and the movement was (temporarily) disabled thanks to the “Sunni Awakening” of moderate tribal leaders, who fought ISIS in coordination with American troops. Ten years later, thanks to widespread unrest in Syria and the subsequent disruption to regional stability, ISIS re-emerged stronger than ever, joining the Sunni-led opposition and adopting tactics that proved too radical even for Al Qaeda. In the wake of bloody turf wars in Syria between ISIS and other extremist groups, Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri publicly disowned the offshoot in February 2014.
Now, ISIS, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, plans to take over Iraq; in mid-June, rebels boldly chased national security forces out of Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul. They hold large swathes of northern and western Iran, and the cities of Tikrit, Fallujah, Tel Afar, and parts of Ramadi, and are planning to extend their campaign southward, all the way to Baghdad.
Why has the ISIS Iraqi assault been successful thus far?
Here, it’s important to cite the gargantuan failures of the Shiite-led Iraqi government under the stewardship of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Since the U.S. withdrew in December 2011, the prime minister has intensified his exclusionary policies targeting Iraq’s large Sunni minority, for example attempting to have his Sunni vice president arrested and launching a violent crackdown on a Sunni protest site last year. Little wonder then, as the New Yorker notes, “With nowhere else to go, Iraq’s Sunnis are turning, once again, to the extremists to protect them.” Case in point: ISIS has succeeded at recruiting members of marginalized groups like Sunni tribal fighters, Sufis, and Baathists.
Not that al-Maliki is the only one to blame. When American forces pulled out, they left behind a fragile, overstretched state that struggled to unite the country’s feuding sects and curb extremism. Before ISIS launched its campaign last month, Iraq was seeing daily suicide bombings and insurgent attacks in its worse spate of violence in five years.
Who are the rebels?
ISIS is thought to number in the thousands, though determining the exact size of the group is near impossible. More worrisome than the size of its ranks, however, is ISIS’ diversity: the radical organization has drawn fighters from across the world, notably from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Russia and France, and is set to attract even more as its high-profile Iraq campaign continues to bear visible fruit, i.e., the seizure of a major city like Mosul.
What’s their endgame?
Redraw the Middle East’s borders and create an empire ruled by an extreme interpretation of Sharia, or Islamic, law. The organization’s recent name change is an important, if ambitious, indicator that it is no longer willing to recognize Iraq or Syria’s sovereignty. While a five-year plan reportedly released by the group this weekend, which maps the extent of its territorial ambitions and stretches as far as Serbia and North Korea, has been revealed to be a hoax, ISIS is nonetheless aiming to create a vast Islamic state that would straddle Iraq and Syria. The radical organization has already imposed Sharia law on the residents of Mosul where, for example, women are barred from leaving the house unless “necessary.”
How is Baghdad responding?
Even though Iraqi security forces outnumber ISIS fighters, they have failed to contain the insurgency, as made chillingly clear by the exodus of soldiers from Mosul last month. Clashes continue in northern Iraq, notably near ISIS strongholds in Anbar province; Iraqi troops launched an offensive Saturday to push militants out of Tikrit.
The most effective security response, however, has come from largely autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, which deployed its U.S.-trained military, the Peshmerga, after the fall of Mosul. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has since welcomed thousands of Iraqi refugees, and reportedly offered protection to over 10,000 security forces. The KRG is using the crisis to bolster its regional authority, notably by seizing the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, to which it has long laid claim. Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani has announced he will hold a referendum on independence from Baghdad in the coming months.
What about the international community?
While rich in condemnation and outrage, foreign assistance to Baghdad – for now, at least – has been limited. The United States supplied helicopters and drones, as well as a small contingent of military advisors and several hundred soldiers, but is shying away from military intervention. However, U.S. President Barack Obama has asked Congress to approve $500 million to arm and train Iraq’s moderate rebel factions. Washington also placed a $10 million bounty on Baghdadi’s head. Russia delivered a fleet of aircraft this weekend, as did, reportedly, Iran, which has a lot at stake in preserving a Shiite-dominated Iraq and has accordingly pledged its military support.
What next?
ISIS is a potent regional threat. The organization has proved itself capable of not only recruiting an international network of fighters and stockpiling heavy weaponry, but also at self-funding via extortion schemes – it also seized about $450 million during a bank heist in Mosul – making it the wealthiest militant group in the world. That said, it remains to be seen if the organization’s radical tactics will alienate residents of seized territories within Iraq, as well as its loose fighting coalition, enough to lay the groundwork for a repeat of 2006’s pushback by moderates.
Analysts warn that ISIS is primed to usurp Al Qaeda as the world’s most dangerous jihadist movement. Western states are particularly anxious that ISIS militants will return home radicalized, as was the case for French citizen Mehdi Nemmouche, who went on a deadly shooting spree in a Jewish museum in Belgium last month after fighting with the jihadist group in Syria.
Look for ISIS to continue its efforts to consolidate control on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border via multi-pronged assaults. With no sign that the Iraqi government is capable of stemming the onslaught, foreign intervention may become more likely as ISIS sets its sights on Baghdad and beyond.
