A soldier guards a polling station on April 5, 2014, in Kabul, Afghanistan. (Scott Peterson/Getty Images)
On Saturday, June 14, Afghan voters will head once again to the ballot boxes to participate in the country’s first runoff election, where Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani will face off.
Though the first round, held on April 5, was relatively violence-free, tensions are on the rise this time around as the Taliban accelerates its traditional summer offensive; the militant group is believed responsible for a failed assassination attempt against frontrunner Abdullah on June 6 that left 12 people dead. Taliban warnings of further attacks are being taken seriously — government authorities have shut down state schools and universities nationwide, as well as some government buildings, during what is being called a “public holiday” that will last until the election is over.
Despite the security concerns, high turnout is expected on Saturday. The first ballot saw over seven million Afghans vote – about 50% more than the turnout for the last presidential election in 2009. As for the ballot itself, both candidates have pledged to accept its results, diminishing the prospect of a coalition government. While Abdullah led in the first round, with 45% of votes, compared to 31.6% for Ghani, his victory is far from certain. Analysts caution that ethnic divisions could loom over the second round in a more significant way than in the first. Ghani, who is Pashtun, may draw votes from that ethnic base (the largest in Afghanistan), which were cast for other candidates in the first round. Abdullah, who is part Pashtun and part Tajik, is more strongly identified with the latter group.
Come July 22, when the election results will be announced, Kabul won’t be the one watching closely. Washington has a lot staked on a successful run-off, i.e., one with a wide margin of victory that leaves little room for disputing the results. Afghanistan’s next president will resolve the tricky question of an extended U.S. military presence in the wake of the NATO withdrawal at the end of this year. (President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign a bilateral security agreement with the United States, insisting instead that his successor should be tasked with the job.)
Abdullah or Ghani will also be tasked with reducing corruption among police and the judiciary, easing ethnic tensions, and improving women’s rights, to cite the leading concerns among Afghan voters, according to the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission — all this amid an economy shrinking as foreign aid dries up. Not to mention suppressing a Taliban insurgency no doubt chomping at the bit in anticipation of the departure of foreign troops. Kabul may look to have security in hand for Saturday’s ballot, but the true test lies after the president is sworn in.
