A rebel fighter guards a street from ISIL militants in Jabal al-Zawiya on January 6, 2014. (REUTERS/Fadi Mashan)
Iraq is facing potential implosion after an al Qaeda splinter group seized the country’s second largest city of Mosul on Tuesday, forcing some 500,000 residents to flee. The offensive began on June 6 when militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) – also waging war across the border in Syria – overpowered security forces in the region, reportedly executing at least 15 soldiers and police officers. Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has since asked the Iraqi parliament to declare a state of emergency.
Source: BBC News
The assault offers a stark illustration of Baghdad’s failure to reassert control over the country after the withdrawal of U.S. troops two and a half years ago, and ease growing tensions with Iraq’s Sunni minority. Sunni militants have been upping the ante for a year now – the death toll in May alone reached nearly 800 – and laying siege to critical western towns like Fallujah as they attempt to bolster control over territories near the border with Syria.
Baghdad’s stopgap measure has been to reach out to Iraq’s Kurds, calling on the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a largely autonomous mini-statelet north of Mosul, to deploy its U.S.-trained military, the Peshmerga, to wrest the seized city back from “terrorists.” Thousands of refugees are on their way to Iraqi Kurdistan, although reportedly only those with family in the region or a “patron” will be authorized. KRG authorities report that some 150,000 Iraqis have crossed its borders, and that over 10,000 Iraqi security forces are under Kurdish protection.
But longstanding tensions between authorities in Erbil, the capital city of the KRG, and the Iraqi central government – amplified by Kurdistan’s recent deal with Turkey to export oil directly, without going through Baghdad – may yet hinder security cooperation. The blame game is already starting, with KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani stating that attempts to protect Mosul in coordination with Iraqi authorities have failed because of Baghdad’s stance. While the Peshmerga are preparing to protect Kurdish zones that lie outside KRG boundaries, i.e., the city of Kirkuk, which was also seized by ISIL rebels, Baghdad is warning against any independent military incursion in those territories officially under the central government’s control.
Yet with Baghdad against the wall, look for the KRG to increase its defense efforts. After all, ISIL insurgents represent an equally grave threat to Kurdistan’s security, especially if their offensive threatens the region’s lucrative oilfields. Another stratagem is likely at play as well; Erbil’s ability to restore stability – even as Iraqi forces continue to desert Mosul – would provide an invaluable boost to its regional authority, especially if it succeeds at negotiating with local Sunni tribes that have thrown their support behind the militants, not to mention its leveraging power with Baghdad. A sustained security offensive beyond the KRG’s borders could also see Erbil de facto extend its borders. Ultimately, KRG could push back ISIL – it has before – and in the process bolster its bid for complete autonomy. It looks like Baghdad’s headaches are far from over.
