Soldiers, who were wearing no identifying insignia and declined to say whether they were Russian or Ukrainian, patrol outside the Simferopol International Airport on February 28, 2024 near Simferopol, Ukraine. Sean Gallup/Getty Images
As Ukraine grapples to contain a Russia-backed separatist movement in Crimea, protests are gathering steam in Abkhazia, a breakaway province in nearby Georgia. Abkhazia leader Alexander Ankvab fled the capital Sukhumi on Tuesday after dozens of protesters stormed the presidential offices and thousands more gathered to demand reforms and the government’s resignation; the president is quoted Wednesday as saying that he is facing an “armed coup attempt.”
Source: BBC News
The opposition movement is targeting not only Ankvab, but also his backers in Moscow. Like Crimea, Abkhazia has strong ties with Russia – two decades after it broke away from Georgia, the regional heavyweight is one of a few countries to recognize the province’s independence – and has historically sought its protection. Yet, a backlash is brewing. Critics accuse Ankvab’s administration of being overly dependent on Russia, among broader allegations of corruption, misrule, and authoritarianism.
With Ankvab chased out of the capital, Moscow is on high alert. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement Wednesday noting its concern over “the deterioration of the political situation in Abkhazia.” Now, the Kremlin is sending Vladislav Surkov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide, deputy security council secretary Rashid Nurgaliyev, and two senior officials to Abkhazia to evaluate the situation. But with the unrest limited to Sukhumi (for now at least), why all the fuss?
Moscow can ill afford a vocal opposition movement in Abkhazia, not with its attention – and military resources – focused in Ukraine. Much has been made in recent months of the similarities between Abkhazia and South Ossetia (another breakaway Georgian province) and Ukraine’s Crimea, all of which have strong linguistic and cultural ties with Russia. Indeed, Moscow has employed similar tactics in all three regions, namely stirring up separatist tensions and issuing Russian passports to their residents. Yet Crimea is far from a done deal; government forces faced off against rebel fighters on Monday and Tuesday in the eastern city of Donetsk. The clashes left dozens dead. The Kremlin has expressed its willingness to talk, but eastern Ukraine remains a battlefield largely controlled by separatists.
Though Abkhazia officials insist there are no links between the two crises, it’s easy to imagine protesters in the breakaway province inspiring their counterparts in Ukraine (and vice versa), particularly if, as oppo leaders claim, they really have “temporarily” taken over the government. That said, the chances of the Abkhazian movement enduring are slim. The nascent opposition is split over its main complaint – dependence on Moscow. While many critics of the current administration resent Russia’s reach, others want to become part of it. Further stacking the odds in Moscow’s favor is Abkhazia’s economic precarity. The province has been handicapped by an economic embargo by the international community for over fifteen years. The result: financial dependence on Moscow, whose subsidies represent 70% of its economy.
Look for Surkov and company to quietly mediate the crisis in Abkhazia. Already, Russia is preparing to increase its military presence in the small province, and plans to double the weaponry available to its troops in Abkhazia by this autumn. Meaning that if ever the opposition gains enough momentum to pose a serious threat, Moscow will be ready.
