Pakistani P.M. Nawaz Sharif on November 16, 2024 in Colombo, Sri Lanka. (Photo by Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images)
Two brutal bombings that killed at least 19 people in unruly provinces of Pakistan on Friday underscore the challenge for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as he seeks a peace deal with the local Taliban. Unlike the militant group’s chapter in neighboring Afghanistan, its forces in Pakistan are splintered, with Ahrar-ul-Hind (“Liberators of India”) splitting off from the central Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan group that has expressed openness to talks with the government. So while the Pakistani political class, press and military look to their premier to take charge of the security situation, he finds himself in rather a tricky position, lacking a cohesive enemy with whom to negotiate but nonetheless faced with a broad mandate (given that Taliban leadership opened the door to peace before his election) to settle the question of the unruly tribal regions once and for all.
VISUAL CONTEXT: Concern about the Taliban (as opposed to traditional enemy India) has risen in recent years, putting pressure on Sharif to act (via Pew Research Center):
Perhaps Sharif can take solace in the ongoing woes of the man who ousted him via a coup in 1999, Perez Musharraf. Recently under house arrest and now avoiding court in a military hospital, the former general was issued an arrest warrant without bail Friday for charges relating to his subversion of the constitution and courts in 2007. So long as this soap opera plays out on the national stage, it helps Sharif avoid too much scrutiny for the bloodshed, which are somewhat less shocking in the outlying provinces than if they had taken place in, say, Islamabad. But the challenge for his government going forward is quite clear: in a country where the military has a storied legacy of seizing political power, failure to make real progress in the Taliban talks might leave the door open for another strongman. (Then again, the willingness of the courts to be so punitive toward a former top military commander does suggest the balance of institutional power within the country has shifted in favor of the judiciary and democratic institutions.) Sharif has progressed nicely through the early stages of his latest premiership, but now he will be tested once again.
