Modi or bust for India’s young Muslims

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As India was poised to announce the date of its upcoming parliamentary elections on Tuesday, Narendra Modi towered above the field, the Hindu nationalist having fashioned himself easily the most popular politician in the country over the past year by promising to revive the flagging economy. As the New York Times reports, Muslims are still trying to decide how trustworthy the Gujarat state chief minister is, with the older generation remembering his alleged role in 2002′s anti-Muslim riots and younger, economically desperate voters ready to forgive and forget:

But Mr. Modi has presided over an economy in Gujarat that is among the strongest in India, and he has promised to bring to the rest of the country his economic expertise. Few political observers believe he will win over many Muslims, but his outreach could persuade vital regional leaders, who themselves have large Muslim constituencies, that he is an acceptable partner.

“Modi’s campaign has been strikingly devoid of anti-Muslim rhetoric,” Ashutosh Varshney, a professor of international studies at Brown University, wrote in an emailed response to questions. “Whether that is a sign of ideological evolution remains unclear, but at the very least it is part of a considered strategic decision.”

Top Bharatiya Janata Party officials have even suggested that the party could apologize to Muslims for past actions. In his speech Sunday, Mr. Modi pointed out that Gujarati Muslims are so much more prosperous than those in Uttar Pradesh that a far greater share in Gujarat apply to undertake the hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca, an important tenet of the Islamic faith.

So even if winning over Muslims, who comprise about 14 percent of India’s population, is still a lofty goal, Modi’s real objective is to avoid a total disaster among the demographic. And he clearly has the political skills to do so. Barring some kind of social desirability bias among poll respondents and those talking to reporters — where nearly all Muslims decide to vote as a unified bloc against Modi in the end, even if they are suggesting otherwise right now — the only question remaining is whether Modi’s BJP really has changed ideologically. Will India be safe for them?

VISUAL CONTEXT: Muslims may be attracted to the BJP and Modi’s problem-solving image

The Hindu nationalism is still present, but the rhetoric and threat of violence do seem to have lost some of their nasty edge over the last decade. One gets the sense there is substantial risk for Muslims in backing Modi, but that most younger voters among them simply do not recognize a viable alternative and would prefer to incentivize good treatment by lending the inevitable victor their ballots.