Vladimir Putin in Novo-Ogaryovo residence on January 30, 2014. Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
Vladimir Putin’s politics have often been quite difficult to define. He is a passionate Russian state nationalist, but not a Russian ethnic supremacist or anti-Semitic, for example. However, as he faces new political pressures and challenges, he is increasingly adopting a conservative social agenda in the hope that it will provide him with political traction both at home and abroad.
There have been individual measures already, such as the 2012 “foreign agents law” making it difficult for NGOs to accept international assistance, the 2013 law against LGBT “propaganda”, and the restructuring of news agency RIA Novosti into a more Kremlin-friendly outfit. Increasingly, though, ad hoc measures are combining to outline a comprehensive platform based on three main pillars.
The first is an appeal to conservative social values. Although homosexuality is legal in Russia, for example, it is still regarded as sinful by the powerful Russian Orthodox Church hierarchy and deviant by many Russians. Increasingly, Putin is trying to present political liberalism — and the emerging opposition movement — as something alien, hostile to Russian values.
Part of this campaign is also an increasing use of an officially-framed history to present an heroic image of Russia and a justification for both strong central control and a rejection of many liberal Western ideas.
The third pillar is an attempt to squeeze out dissenting voices still heard within the media. This combination was very evident in the past week. An ill-judged opinion poll on Dozhd - the last remaining independent national TV channel — may mean its demise. During the anniversary of the World War Two siege of Leningrad, a conflict in which perhaps 1.5 million Soviets died, which has become a symbol of national resilience, Dozhd asked whether or not the city ought to have been abandoned, to spare civilian casualties and allow a more rational military regrouping further to the east.
The result was a political and social media firestorm, even though, as it later turned out, the same question also appeared in some school history textbooks. While much was undoubtedly genuine, it also seems to have been stoked by a government both angry at the poll and also seeing in this an opportunity to silence an often-critical voice. As parliamentarians, veterans’ organizations and individuals protested, cable TV providers began taking Dozhd off their lists.
It is currently unclear whether Dozhd will survive. There appears to be a softening in the official position. A spirited campaign by its subscribers and supporters may yet save it, but it remains to be seen whether the channel remains as iconoclastic as before.
At present, the campaign appears to be successful. Putin’s personal popularity ratings have strengthened — in part probably because of a “Sochi bump” — and he has even garnered unexpected support in foreign quarters. Leading U.S. conservative Pat Buchanan even wrote that “Putin is not wrong in saying that he can speak for much of mankind.” But in the process, Russia is isolating itself further, and the Kremlin is limiting its options to reach out to the rising, cosmopolitan Russian middle class.
