Portraits of current and former ANC presidents including Mandela on June 24, 2013. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko
When Nelson Mandela died on Thursday, it marked the end of an era not just for South Africa, but for that of the continent at large. He was the last untainted representative of a previous generation of post-colonial leaders who turned back the tide of European hegemony, a century-long stretch of military abuse and economic plunder. This group included figures as diverse in their democratic values as Uganda’s former strongman General Idi Amin, Egypt’s Anwar Sadat, Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta, and Zimbabwe’s incumbent President Robert Mugabe, but Mandela, of course, was always the most universally celebrated (and personally popular) of the bunch, and never strayed from his anti-apartheid political identity. Indeed, even if his frailty had essentially made him a non-factor in the national debate for some time, he was used as a potent image of past glory by the increasingly corrupt African National Congress party right up to the end, a photo op at his bedside this year having drawn criticism for the crassness of the imagery. The Nkandlagate scandal, where Zuma appears to have indulged in taxpayer cash to fund a swimming pool, paved roads, and new houses for relocated relatives, is facing fresh calls for his resignation from the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters.
Faced with the threat of reformist political movements — perhaps more credibly personified by businesswoman Mamphela Ramphele’s formation of a new party - South African President Jacob Zuma, already known for clinging to Mandela at every turn, will use the pomp and circumstance of the state’s official remembrance to maximal effect in the coming weeks. And yet even if his loss opens a void where others will rush to protect their own prerogatives, Mandela’s death comes as old political arrangements across the region have begun to give way, however reluctantly. Indeed, even Mugabe recently signed a reworked constitution that, though it allowed him to secure yet another term in August, may help pave the way for democratic successors in the future. Likewise, Kenya recently installed a democratically-elected president in Uhuru Kenyatta, who is after all the son of one of Mandela’s fellow politician-liberators, in its smoothest election and transfer-of-power in recent memory. Though the International Criminal Court’s ongoing probe of Kenyatta’s role in post-election violence six years ago is not exactly consistent with the Mandela model, the fact remains that he is essentially a modern politician governing with the consent of the people, albeit an electorate that is bitterly (and troublingly) divided along ethnic lines.
Of course, for South Africans, the domestic political outlook is not much more promising. Ramphele’s nascent party is picking up support but still faces incredible institutional disadvantages to the deeply entrenched ANC. Apathy is widespread, and though there is some possibility that the government will overreach in its aggressive use of Mandela imagery in the weeks and months ahead, suffice it to say the onus is on challengers to the status quo to prove that Mandela’s death finally opens the door to a new dynamic, one where insurgent parties can gain a real foothold in parliament and voters are willing to let old loyalties go. The example provided by Venezuela, where the death of a similarly larger-than-life figure in Hugo Chavez gave his hand-picked successor a (narrow) election win, suggests this will prove a tall order. So long as the federal bureaucracy and public institutions are wedded to the incumbent party, lighting a fire underneath them will be a challenge for all gadflies on the periphery. But the opportunity is there, and if younger voters — who lack their parents’ deep emotional bond to the ANC — can be engaged by his foes, Zuma may find that Mandela’s passing heralds a more robust democracy where his party faces new degrees of public scrutiny and accountability. At the very least, that Ramphele has had no fear of going after Mandela’s relatives in the past suggests she may only get more aggressive now that the elephant is out of the room, so to speak.
All of which is to say that while we do not yet know whether Mandela’s death will serve to provide a check on his party’s seemingly indefatigable grip on power, once the pageantry of remembrance has died down, those who depend on his legacy may find themselves looking over their shoulders for the first time in two decades. The “Born Free” generation — those born after the end of apartheid in 1994 — are decidedly more radical in their politics and may seize on the occasion to breathe life into the EFF, Ramphele’s Agang, or some other attractive vehicle for change.
