Afghan police examine the mosque where a bomb killed Gov. Arsallah Jamal on Oct. 15, 2013. (AP Photo/Ahsanullah Majuze)
Afghanistan saw its highest-profile assassination in months on Tuesday, when a mosque bombing killed provincial governor Arsallah Jamal, and wounded 15 others. The Taliban insurgency is presumed responsible for the attack.
That Jamal, one of President Hamid Karzai’s closest advisors, was targeted speaks to the intensification of the Taliban’s campaign against government officials in recent months. It also reinforces Monday’s warning by the leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammed Omar, that the group’s anti-government war will continue unless all foreign troops leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014. Which leaves Karzai in a tricky position.
The Afghan leader has been negotiating a security deal that would allow the United States to keep boots on the ground beyond 2014, and which is regarded by many observers as critical to fending off a strengthened Taliban. Yet, Karzai himself has been negative about the potential pact, accusing the U.S. of infringements to Afghan sovereignty. (The president remains livid about the October 5 arrest of Pakistan Taliban leader, Latif Mehsud, by U.S. troops while in Afghan custody.)
During a weekend visit by Secretary of State John Kerry, the U.S. relented on Karzai’s demand that any counter-terrorism operations after 2014 be coordinated with Afghan troops. However, immunity for U.S. soldiers remains a sticking point and Kerry left Kabul on Sunday without a signed deal. Now, Karzai, who has promised to convene a council of tribal elders to decide on the immunity caveat, has an additional incentive to walk away from the pact, thanks to Mullah Omar’s threat of renewed violence. (Karzai’s first incentive being his political legacy, and the risk of being accused of catering to foreign interests.) The Afghan president has good reason to be prickly about his U.S. ties — the Taliban and the opposition have long derided him as an American puppet.
But it looks like Karzai is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t. Given the Taliban’s track record, a security vacuum left by U.S.-led NATO troops is unlikely to result in a lasting peace. On the contrary, it will read as an invitation for insurgents to step up their game. Without a foreign presence on the ground, Afghanistan’s fragile national security is at risk (as is the influx of international aid on which Afghans rely.) Despite training by NATO troops, Afghan forces have been crippled by a rise in casualties and defections since taking over security in March.
National elections, too, are in jeopardy. Days after the Afghan presidential race kicked off on September 16, insecurity emerged as a primary concern when gunmen killed top election official Amanullah Aman. Graft is also a problem: a profitable voter card market has emerged in recent weeks and campaign managers are reportedly buying up cards at $5 apiece. Far from being the conduit to a new climate of stability and democracy — as Washington hopes — the 2014 ballot is shaping up to be a lot like the 2009 election, i.e., marked by widespread corruption and vote-rigging. Meaning that Karzai’s successor looks to inherit not only a Taliban champing at the bit, but a political house in disarray.
