Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Kabul on September 17, 2013. AFP PHOTO/ SHAH Marai
Afghan president Hamid Karzai upped his ante this week, calling out the United States for the failures of its Afghanistan campaign in a BBC interview. According to the president, the war should have been conducted in the “training ground beyond Afghanistan” (read insurgent camps in Pakistan) and not “in Afghan villages, causing harm to Afghan people.”
His comments follow a nearly one-year deadlock between Washington and Kabul over a security deal that would maintain U.S. forces in Afghanistan after the NATO coalition pulls out in 2014. The deal has been stymied in large part by Karzai’s attempts to create distance from his U.S. ally. At stake is his own political legacy — Karzai has six months left in his final presidential term — and a potential national backlash akin to those which have hounded past Afghan leaders seen as prioritizing foreign interests.
While Karzai’s words could moderate his at-home image as a U.S. puppet, they come at the worst possible time for Afghans. Despite training from NATO forces, the Afghan national security apparatus is ill-equipped to keep the peace. Negotiations with the Taliban have all ended in stalemate, despite Karzai’s assurances Monday that Kabul is “actively engaged” in talks with the homegrown insurgency. And as the country prepares for a critical election in April 2014, in which Afghans will select Karzai’s successor amid a slate of 27 candidates, Taliban militants are intensifying their anti-government campaign.
Faced with Karzai’s renewed finger-pointing, Washington’s patience looks to be waning. The United States had foreseen leaving troops to assure security in the region after 2014, but is unlikely to cede to Afghan demands: a guarantee for national security (a veiled demand to defend Afghanistan from its neighbor — and U.S. ally — Pakistan); and a complete transfer of counterterrorism operations to Afghan forces. If the United States pulls out, so will the European nations with troop presences there. Afghanistan’s foreign aid will be at risk as well.
Karzai has called for a gathering of tribal elders to discuss the security deal, but the traditional loya jirga risks lasting beyond Washington’s informal end of the month deadline for a signed deal. Despite initial optimism that a security accord would be signed in the coming weeks, U.S. officials now confirm that the zero option – a.k.a. a complete military withdrawal – is a distinct possibility. Karzai may get what he wished for.
