By the Blouin News Politics staff

Did the ANC miscalculate at Marikana?

by in Africa.

Julius Malema attends a memorial service on August 16, 2024 in Marikana. (AFP PHOTO / STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN)

South Africa marked Friday the anniversary of the Marikana killings that saw 34 striking mine workers gunned down by police. Conspicuously absent at the ceremony, held at the mine where the killings occurred were Jacob Zuma and representatives from his ruling ANC party. The last-minute boycott was (nominally) in protest at the participation of a militant mining union, which has accused the party of siding with mining companies over workers. As good a reason as any. The sometimes bloody rivalry between the pro-ANC National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the ascendant hardline Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu), is also an important piece of the backdrop against which Friday’s proceedings took place.

But remember that the fight for a majority of the country’s mine workers is a politically significant one in South Africa, the world’s biggest platinum producer and the home of 50% of known gold reserves. The Marikana massacre, as it became known, came after a series of wildcat strikes spurred on by the Amcu/NUM rivalry. NUM, with its ties to the ruling party, had been accused of being complicit with both the government and mine bosses in keeping wages low for workers. It has since seen its membership fall due to the prevalence of this perception among mine workers and is no longer the majority mine union in the country — ceding that title to Amcu, which finally had its majority status acknowledged by Lonmin, the owner of the Marikana mine, on Thursday.

The ANC absence from the commemoration was eagerly seized on by opposition leaders like Mamphela Ramphele, who called their decision to boycott “a blunder” since the event was not intended for the scoring of “political points but to sympathize with the widows and families of those who were killed.” It appears, however, that firebrand Julius Malema might have also missed out on that memo, arriving to a hero’s welcome at the ceremony. Malema, who was expelled from the ANC in 2012 and has publicly feuded with the party ever since, delivered a scathing critique of the president but also very publicly positioned his Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) movement as the worthy successor to lead the fight for equality in South Africa — as symbolized by their support for the nationalization of the country’s mines. As the ANC’s former youth leader, Malema had long riled old-guard party members with his enfant terrible persona. After his flashy exit, the spotlight was shined on the major fault lines within South Africa’s foremost political institution and its generational struggle with its younger members. The argument that Zuma’s ANC has neglected poor black South Africans with policies that favor the wealthy has gained traction among this faction, many of whom have rallied behind Malema.

Thus, the calculation the ANC made here — that staying away from the commemoration was an effective means of withholding any legitimacy from Malema, whom party leaders must have known would step up — looks short-sighted. With Nelson Mandela’s inevitable passing looming and the 20th anniversary of the end of apartheid approaching, the ANC’s legitimacy to carry on the legacy of the anti-apartheid struggle will come under increasing scrutiny against the backdrop of this factional struggle. Volatility around the country’s mining sector is not going away any time soon. And Marikana will stay fresh in the minds of many South Africans. As long as it does, it’s a momentum-builder for opposition politicians and ANC malcontents. 2014′s elections maybe a lot more competitive than expected.