Thein Sein arrives for a meeting with the French President on July 17, 2024 in Paris. (JACQUES DEMARTHON/AFP/Getty Images)
Myanmar’s President Thein Sein made a surprising revelation on Friday: not only is the former military ruler not preparing to contest his country’s 2015 presidential elections, but he would also have “no objection” to opposition leader and Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi running for the seat herself. Sein’s comments, made during an interview with France 24, came at the end of a four-day European diplomatic tour during which he made a few other significant reform pledges, including a plan to release political prisoners and the disbanding of the notorious security force Nasaka.
As promising as all of this sounds for Myanmar’s democratic reform process, it is still no guarantee that serious action will follow the diplomatically convenient words (Sein is counting on Western governments to take his pledges at face value in order to secure aid).
Despite Sein’s supposed agreeability to a future Suu Kyi candidacy, there are clear impediments in the reformist leader’s way, most obviously a constitutional decree that excludes her from eligibility for a presidential run. The decree, which bans those married to foreign citizens or have children of a foreign nationality from running, is thought by many to have been drafted with the opposition leader specifically in mind (both restrictions would apply to Suu Kyi). Sein addressed the issue in his interview saying that while the constitution was amendable, it would depend on lawmakers agreeing to amendments that would then have to be put to a referendum. Not exactly the most encouraging sign — especially given the time constraint before the 2015 elections.
Even if this were to be taken as a clear signal that the Sein government is intending to allow for a Suu Kyi candidacy, the looming challenge of Suu Kyi’s controversial views on the Rohingya should also be factored in. As popular as the leader is, the explosive issue would place land mines in her path towards the presidency and could potentially force the leader to back pedal on her principled stance in support of the Rohingya in the face of popular domestic opinion — potentially compromising her international standing. A fraught path indeed, leaving plenty of room for any member Sein’s USDP party to inherit the presidential mantle. In short, this is yet another convenient way for Sein to strike a reformist stance while making little effort to address an underlying issue for his country’s democratic transition — or, at the very least, preparation to shift the blame when his pledges don’t pan out.
