Five Star Movement deputies attend a demonstration against the suspension of parliamentary activity in front of the Italian Parliament in Rome July 10, 2013. REUTERS/Alessandro Bianchi
A fundamental rule of politics is to take delight in the misfortune of your enemy, and to capitalize in any way possible. So one might think Italy’s center-left coalition, which has fought business magnate and three-time Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi tooth-and-nail for decades, would be celebrating the news that his legal troubles may finally come back to bite him. Famous for getting convicted and then exhausting the statute of limitations on a litany of charges in a notoriously slow-moving legal system, Berlusconi’s fortune took a turn for the worse this week when the nation’s highest criminal court moved his appeal date up for a tax fraud conviction to July 30. An affirmation of the lower court ruling could mean a ban from public office (which he does not currently hold despite having played a major role in the election campaign earlier this year) for five years — and even prison time.
Perfect news for a center-left movement that blew its best chance at taking power in years with the collapse of Pier Luigi Bersani’s campaign, right?
Well, sort of. The problem is that the grand coalition currently governing the country includes Berlusconi’s conservative allies, and they have threatened to paralyze parliament for days in protest of the court’s prosecutorial zeal. The center-left’s new leader (and Italy’s prime minister) Enrico Letta has indicated he does not expect the court drama to affect his government, perhaps reflecting cynicism that Berlusconi will ever pay a price for his flamboyant personal and financial pursuits. But the problem is a simple one: if the government does collapse over Berlusconi’s legal issues, who benefits? It’s an essential question not just for those parties currently in government, but for outsider insurgencies like the Five Star Movement as well.
Certainly, the center-left might be expected to gain at the expense of the Northern League and other conservative parties in Italy, but one has to assume Five Star leaders are licking their lips right now as well. Just months after shocking the political establishment by winning over a fifth of the vote, Five Star could theoretically get another shot at at the polls. And this time, with Italy’s two major electoral coalitions having just led a short-lived and scandal-plagued grand coalition, their screeds against a bankrupt political class might reach mainstream acceptance.
To be sure, Berlusconi has found his way out of seemingly intractable legal imbroglios before. But if the hammer does finally come down, a splintered and resentful center-left may not be there to pick up the pieces. Instead, we could get another dose of Beppe Grillo — and yet more headaches for Angela Merkel in Berlin.
