Protesters arrive in the late afternoon at Istanbul’s Taksim square June 12, 2013. REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has faced the most visible and concerted challenge to his rule since first being elected 10 years ago with the massive protests that exploded in Istanbul at the beginning of June. But his strong poll numbers everywhere else in the country, combined with a proven ability to please his political base, suggests his power has never really been threatened — and won’t be, going ahead.
Since an enormous police operation replete with tear-gas and water cannons ousted the protesters from Taksim Square Tuesday and ended the initial, frenzied chapter of what had been described by some observers as a political crisis, tension has at least temporarily subsided, even if those upset at the planned demolition of a public park (which served as the spark for the protest explosion) have vowed to continue. They seemed to gain a victory Wednesday when a spokesman for Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party indicated that, after meeting with a group of protesters, the government is open to a referendum on the Gezi Park project.
But while further unrest has to be considered likely, if only to keep up what has become a fun cultural outlet for urban youth, a Pew poll taken in March and released just as the protests got underway points to Erdogan’s considerable underlying political strength. 62 percent of the public approved of him personally, better numbers than many Western leaders like Barack Obama and David Cameron enjoy. Erdogan is underwater in Istanbul (of which he was once mayor), where some 54 percent viewed him unfavorably (and that number could be closer to 60 or 65 percent by now) — perhaps a response to the recent clampdown on alcohol sales that helped fuel the outrage as protests first got underway. And yet even in the city, there are pockets of strong support for Erdogan in some neighborhoods, where people are enjoying new freedoms for women and an improving economy.
All of which is to say that the protests seem more and more like the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations that captured the public imagination in the United States and much of the world in 2011. What those protests failed to do was actually have all that great an impact on the powers that be, though they did seem to change the contours of the political debate, an impact Erdogan’s challengers may already have achieved. But like Occupy, these Turkish protests have been physically upended by police, and the question now is whether they will be able to gather any momentum without their signature public space (assuming the police prevent them from occupying it again). Also like Occupy, negotiations between the protesters and police are complicated by disputes over who can claim to speak for the movement, posing problems to government officials intent on striking a deal, as they apparently did late Wednesday on some kind of public vote.
So while it bears watching whether the referendum proceeds and how protesters react, Erdogan is working from a position of strength. His stellar poll numbers help explain his initial anger at and fiery condemnation of the protests (and the government’s general unwillingness to acknowledge their legitimacy). Unless he notices a sudden dive in statistical measures of public opinion, all the noise and symbolism in Turkey won’t be enough to stop him.
