A portrait of President Francois Hollande in a market stall in Bamako on March 6, 2013. AFP PHOTO / JOHN MACDOUGALL
Amid the tumult over French President François Hollande’s proposed gay marriage legislation, which was approved Tuesday, the French parliament quietly (and unanimously) extended the current military operation in Mali late Monday night. But although French MPs were reportedly congratulating themselves about reaching such a clear consensus, the vote was no surprise. Operation Serval in Mali remains one of the few issues on which French constituents, and concurrently their political leaders, can consistently agree. Since the operation’s launch on January 11, popular support has barely budged (dropping slightly from 63% to 59% in late March, according to IFOP), standing in stark contrast to past foreign interventions, namely in Afghanistan and Libya, for which French support rapidly eroded, and the divisive gay marriage bill itself. In the campaign’s earliest weeks (and following a series of initial military gains), that overwhelming support translated to much-needed political capital for the French president.
In the intervening months, however, the socialist leader saw that boost evaporate: by March, his approval ratings had dropped 13 points from his January high of 44 percent (to 31 percent). Handicapped by his inability to counter a hostile economic climate and record joblessness — not to mention a ministerial scandal, backlash against a transparency initiative meant to temper said scandal, and widespread protests against gay marriage — it is little wonder that Hollande has become the most unpopular French president in decades. In advance of Monday’s Mali vote — and fresh off a (temporary) political success thanks to the release of seven French hostages by their Nigerian captives on Friday — the president was undoubtedly hoping to regain some of that fleeting capital.
Unfortunately for the floundering leader - in April, his approval rating plummeted to 25% - French and international media alike have largely buried the Mali vote under headlines about the gay marriage bill. But Operation Serval is not an inexhaustible source of political gold. French support is likely contingent on the ‘end is near’ mentality fostered by Hollande and his top ministers. Though the majority of French troops are set to leave Mali by the end of the year — 500 soldiers have already left — the mission’s length (and breadth) is being increasingly called into question. On Monday, a top French colonel spoke out about the deficiencies of an E.U. training mission meant to prepare the Malian army and facilitate the French withdrawal. His comments echo those of former defense minister Hervé Morin who cautioned that, without a serious European commitment, if French troops are “even starting to pack their bags at the end of 2014, it will be a miracle.” The United Nations has already evoked the possibility of a special unit, to be primarily manned by France and stationed in Mali or elsewhere in West Africa, which would further expand the campaign’s mandate. All of which could jeopardize French support for Operation Serval.
As could growing regional fallout — according to French media, Hollande has already substantiated the theory that Islamist militants seeking revenge for the Mali campaign were behind Tuesday’s attacks on the French Embassy in Libya. Nevertheless, Hollande is likely to continue to emphasize one of his remaining strong hands — his decisiveness abroad — and simultaneously downplay its financial cost (€200 million and counting) and regional implications. He’s already had his ‘Mission Accomplished’ moment; so look for a wind-down just slow enough to save face and a big push to cement public opinion of the African nation’s scheduled July elections as legitimate. The Socialist wants to bank a foreign policy ’success’ against the 2017 presidential election he presumably faces. And if his domestic agenda remains the shambles it has proven so far, he is going to need it.
