That Mark Knopfler, the British rock star who founded the band Dire Straits, has cancelled upcoming concerts in Russia is just the latest shot fired in the saga of President Vladimir Putin’s human rights clampdown.
The Knopfler cancellations — which will be as ineffective as any other shot fired by global actors on this issue — come as a response to Putin’s crackdown on foreign-funded NGOs. But Knopfler’s “No” comes on the heels of another adjunct event perhaps more important to actual Russians: the announcement that a regional court will begin the trial of Alexey Navalny, perhaps the most prominent opposition activist in the country, on April 17. The case, his supporters say, is intended to send a stark message before the 1-year anniversary of massive street protests against Putin’s rule. Putin has been cracking down vigorously on dissidents in recent months, but has also begun to lay the groundworkfor the next chapter in his political life, lending his name to the People’s Front, a nascent organization that he may eventually need to continue a career in electoral politics in light of the image problems — stemming in part from the harsh actions against protesters, but mostly from scandal and corruption — plaguing his United Russia party.
Navalny faces up to 10 years in prison for allegedly embezzling timber as an advisor to a liberal governor of Kirov, but most observers don’t expect the actual facts of the case to make much difference. Navalny, a blogger who helped organize last year’s anti-Putin protests (and was placed under house arrest for a time as a result), is going down. This is the same Russian legal apparatus, after all, that resumed its trial this week of Sergey Magnitsky, an anti-corruption whistleblower who died in prison in 2009.
Of more immediate concern is the PR war Navalny is engaged in as he attempts to convince the public of his normalness — just another middle-class Muscovite — and, of course, his innocence. He has made a show of publishing all the materials relating to his case online and asking others to judge for themselves (though state TV constantly blaring that he is a mega-thief can’t be helping any). Navalny cannot stop the politicized legal system from placing him in jail, but he can go out in dramatic fashion, harnessing his online base of supporters to get his own version of events out there for public consumption. His hope is that Putin wins the battle but that by discrediting the case against him and placing the spotlight on its political nature, he and his fellow activists win the war.
Of course, legions of Internet denizens do not a majority make. Russian opposition leaders have been successful in recent years in drawing many thousands into the streets to protest Putin’s excesses, but whether they can repeat that kind of effort this May in the wake of ominous signals from on high — and new polls showing Putin’s approval numbers back over the 60 percent mark — remains to be seen. Which suggests that Navalny is attempting to use his own legal misfortune to breathe life into opposition protesters who have been holding their fire as colleagues and leaders are targeted for prosecution. And as Knopfler’s actions suggest, even has-been 80′s musicians are now apprised of the human rights situation in Russia. Little though that may do to reassure the blogger, it means there is (or is still) an external constituency for his pre-trial positioning efforts as well.
So what does Navalny’s future hold? Putin is unlikely to risk a martyrdom: the blowback over the death of Magnitsky was strong enough to produce legislative action in the U.S. But given that the sound and fury of international outrage over the Pussy Riot trial ended up signifying nothing — and given those depressing approval ratings — Putin will win this round. Or rather, since the outcome of Navalny’s trial looks pre-ordained (he himself expresses great confidence that he will ultimately see jail time), Putin will win the optics battle surrounding Navalny. A jail term followed by a sentence reduction would be another increment in the political rebranding he is attempting and cow the opposition without giving them too much fuel. The best leading indicator of how this will shape up will be the protest anniversary itself, in mid-May. So stay tuned.
