Robert Mugabe speaks at his party’s annual national conference in Gweru, on December 8, 2012. JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images
Zimbabweans go to the polls Saturday to vote in a constitutional referendum ahead of presidential elections that should take place in July. The referendum more or less sets in motion the country’s first vote since 2008’s violent elections, when strongman Robert Mugabe lost to perennial opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in a first round. After intimidation and stalled release of results by Mugabe’s government, Tsvangirai pulled out of a runoff for fear of violence against his followers. Eventually, an internationally brokered power-sharing deal led to the current shaky coalition government, with Mugabe as president and Tsvangirai prime minister, but this time around it’s winner-take-all for the presidency.
Mugabe is the quintessential liberation hero turned repressive dictator. He’s accused of rampant human rights abuses and restrictions of freedoms over his many years in power, while consolidating the country’s wealth for himself. (See February’s lavish and self-thrown birthday party.) So a fair vote might seem to favor Tsvangirai in a nation known for an economy that has struggled with hyperinflation. But Mugabe hasn’t stayed in power for thirty-three years due to lack of political savvy. Though voter turnout is extremely low in Zimbabwe, Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party remains an electoral draw, thanks in part to the land-redistribution policies it pioneered. And Tsvangirai has his own problems. The opposition candidate has earned wide accolades from the West for standing up to Zimbabwe’s dictator, but he’s also been involved in a series of well-known sex scandals and allows a disturbing lack of democracy within his own Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T) party. The MDC-T has dismissed dissenting members, refused to address succession after Tsvangirai, and even been involved in violence against a breakaway party. Indeed, as Tsvangirai enjoys the perks of power, MDC-T has fallen in opinion polls since he’s begun to work more closely with Mugabe without delivering serious results.
Of immediate concern is a repeat of 2008′s violence. Mugabe, at least, has an economic incentive to ensure a real (or real-looking) vote: the European Union will lift some sanctions against Zimbabwe’s cash-strapped government — and Mugabe’s close circle of collaborators — if the referendum is fair and credible. But if the security-sector abuses seen in the run-up are any indication, that economic carrot may not be juicy enough. There have already been cases of violence and intimidation by Mugabe’s people against opposition and civil society groups. Zanu-PF partisans are traversing the country to get out the vote and intimidate the opposition, even confiscating radios — which they claim are used by foreigners to peddle hate speech — in an effort to silence dissenting views. Some young Zimbabweans are mimicking their technologically savvy Kenyan counterparts to monitor violence digitally, but the aging Zanu-PF has put a stop to even that.
As for the constitution itself, it has some good ideas — including term limits — but is largely designed to benefit the nation’s political class. The document was built through four years of negotiations between Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and others rather than through a popular process, and even the term limits, which aren’t retroactive, favor Mugabe. (If the octogenarian manages to hang on to power democratically — or otherwise — for two full terms, he’d be 99 by the time he’d have to step aside.) All parties are pushing for the constitution to pass, but that doesn’t mean Zimbabwe will suddenly become a bastion of fairness under the rule of law if voters approve it. A ‘yes’ vote will give Mugabe four more months to silence opposition, and he’s already said that if he’s elected he might amend the new constitution as he sees fit, rendering the whole difficult exercise somewhat academic. Indeed, once the presidential election does take place, a Mugabe win would likely bring nothing new to a Zimbabwe that has endured three decades of his rule; a Tsvangirai victory would provoke no small response from Mugabe and ZANU-PF — his supporters took to the streets in 2008 and he said in 2013 he’ll fight “like a wounded beast” to keep power. And given that the continuing economic near-disaster that besets the country — in January the treasury was down to $217 — will not be ameliorated by a successful referendum or the election dependent upon it, it’s hard to see any concrete benefit here for the citizens of Zimbabwe.
