A police officer helps to carry ballot boxes for stacking prior to having their votes tallied, at a vote tallying center in Nairobi, Kenya Tuesday, March 5, 2013. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
Kenya’s long-anticipated presidential election, the first since the disputed 2007 contest that saw over a thousand people killed and hundreds of thousands more displaced by tribal violence, isn’t over just yet. But thanks in large part to the international scrutiny and domestic constitutional reforms that followed that previous tragedy, the early phase of Monday’s election has gone well, with relatively few incidents of intimidation. Although at least 19 people were killed in the coastal city of Mombasa (an area that has been experiencing a wave of violence in general as of late), there were no widespread attacks on voters.
Just as polls and political analysts predicted, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta performed very well. A product of Africa’s political and financial elite who, along with his running-mate, has been indicted by the International Criminal Court at the Hague for human rights violations stemming from election-related violence six years ago, Kenyatta leads early counts with over 50 percent of the vote. Distantly trailing him with just over 40 percent of the vote is Prime Minister Raila Odinga. But because hundreds of thousands of ballots have been deemed illegitimate by the independent electoral council, it appears no candidate will cross the 50 percent mark of “all votes cast” as called for by the nation’s recently-revised constitution.
Which means a run-off election — and another test of this fragile young democracy — may be right around the corner.
On one hand, the relatively effective process we saw Monday means that Kenyan election officials enjoyed something of a practice run, and can iron out the kinks — including the long and confusing ballot — before the decisive round. But if there’s a chance things will go more smoothly in a run-off, there’s also the potential for disaster. After all, tribal politics clearly still dictate national political life, as the two major candidates and their running mates represent four distinct and competing ethnic groups. Despite efforts by the government, news media, and outside agencies to encourage voters to choose their candidates based on issues, demographics are still destiny here, the various candidates’ vote shares matching up closely with the ethnic breakdown of the electorate.
Even if the run-off does go off without a hitch and Kenyatta emerges the clear winner, fear by minority groups that the new government will fail to look out for their interests — and perhaps actively work against them — looms over Kenya’s future. It’s one thing to hold an election that outside observers and human rights groups agree accurately reflected public sentiment. But it’s quite another to actually build faith in the national political system. By that metric, at least, Kenya still has a long way to go.