Legacy of violence looms as Kenyans gear up for vote

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It’s voting time in Kenya, and campaigns are in full swing in preparation for general elections on Monday. The eight presidential candidates are helicoptering from rally to rally in search of their share of the 14.3 million registered voters, while caravans of music-blasting campaign buses block up city traffic as they energize their bases. Campaign posters dripping with glue blanket any available surface from tree trunks to highway overpasses, and party flags flap from the external mirrors of public buses and motorcycle taxis. Parades of red or orange, depending on the preferred major party, bounce their way through city streets and slum alleys, blowing whistles and shouting slogans.

But uncertainty lurks beneath the zeal in Kenya, a country divided by ethnic tension and stoked by power-hungry politicians. Over 400 Kenyans died in ethno-political violence in the past year as local politicians incited supporters to drive out political opponents. Recently, hate leaflets have been found from the coastal city of Mombasa to Kisumu in the country’s far west. Tension is high in outlying regions with cattle raids in the northern deserts and potential trouble on the coast where Mombasa Republican Council separatists fear police reprisals. In Nairobi, the slums have begun to burn, and rumors fly that members of “that tribe” are buying votes and stockpiling machetes. Mothers are fleeing with their children to the countryside while husbands stay behind to protect their property.

The fears are not unfounded. Last time Kenyans voted in general elections in 2007 over 1200 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced in bloody tribal violence after a disputed runoff. Five years later, the tribe remains at the center of Kenyan politics. Leading candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga are neck and neck in the polls, each drawing support from their respective tribes. Neither seems to have enough votes to earn an absolute majority on Monday. That means there will likely be a runoff in April, and third place candidate Musalia Mudavadi is poised to be a kingmaker.

A runoff would be bitterly contentious, but is further worrisome because it may coincide with Kenyatta’s trial at the International Criminal Court. He’s accused along with his running mate of committing crimes against humanity during the post-election violence five years ago. But Kenyatta, the wealthy son of Kenya’s first president, has managed to turn a damning indictment into a positive. Kenyatta and the British PR firm advising his campaign have painted the trial as a case of Western imperialists meddling in African affairs, rather than a question of whether someone accused of war crimes is fit for the presidency. The clever reframing comes despite Kenyatta’s previous insistence on being tried at the ICC instead of in Kenyan courts.

Besides the presidency, Kenyans will vote for an unprecedented five other elected positions. The new positions are the product of Kenya’s 2010 constitution that diffuses control from Nairobi and the historically powerful Central Province to less populated outlying regions. The constitution abolishes the system of eight provinces in favor of 47 newly drawn counties. Each county will have a senator and national assembly representative to stand for the people in parliament, and a governor and county ward assembly representative to govern locally. The new constitution also strengthens an independent judiciary in hopes of settling electoral disputes in courts.

Still, the long ballots could mean trouble on Election Day. Voters took a long time with them during a mock election on Sunday, and riots broke out over delays during party nominations in January. So the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission will deliver voting materials further in advance this time, and polls will stay open as long as necessary into the night. 99,000 police officers, including backups from the Kenya Wildlife Service, will be stationed around the country on Monday to respond more proactively than in 2007. And unlike five years ago, when radio announcers freely shouted ethnic vitriol, Kenya’s loudest voices now preach peace. There’s still plenty of potential for violence, but seven of the eight presidential candidates joined hands to pledge peace at a national prayer service last Sunday. TV and radio ad time is filled with calls for nonviolence. Dangerous speech is found on social media, but twitter is buzzing with messages of “Chagua Amani”—“Choose Peace” in Swahili. Kenya is East Africa’s biggest economy and remains a mostly stable democracy in a volatile region. Her people have had five years to redeem themselves after the bloodletting of 2007, and Monday will be their greatest test.