India, China and Vietnam to lead global trade resurgency

Dec 04, 2012, 12:17 PM EST
Chart of growth in GDP and trade, growth (% year)
HSBC Trade Forecast. Chart shows % change in annual GDP and trade

Global trade will grow faster than the global economy next year, and continue to do so in the years ahead, according to HSBC's latest Trade Forecast. It sees a 5% growth in trade in 2013, picking up to 6-7% in the following two years.
China and India will be the drivers. HSBC sees Asia's emerging economies trading more with other emerging nations that have strong potential for a rapid expansion of their middle class as economic growth remains sluggigh in their traditional export makets in rich countries.
HSBC expects the fastest growing export routes in 2016-20 to be India to Vietnam, China Turkey and Malaysia; Vietnam to India and China; Turkey to China, Vietnam and India; and China to India. This will create a new phase of globalization between now and 2020 as businesses realign supply chains to reflect South-South trade and investment flows increasingly shaping the direction of global trade.
Asian export growth generally will be stronger than in the rest of the world, with India, China and Vietnam posting double-digit annual export growth as far out as 2030, HSBC forecasts.